It’s always exciting (to me, anyway!) to visit the trade shows in our industry to see what’s being offered. At the last Automate in Detroit back in May, robots were everywhere, and, in particular, autonomous mobile robots (AMRs) were the menu item of the day.
In this issue of Fifth Wave Monthly, AMRs account for two of the three Product News items. Two of the three Featured Videos also involve AMRs (or at least in the case of Sonair, a major navigation change for AMRs, potentially) and the other features an integrated robot on an AMADA press brake. Are AMRs all that hot? According to market research, they are.
I got curious about how different segments of the robot market were faring. In 2024, there was a quiet but undeniable slowdown. Potential customers were scared of the shape of the economy, the cost of borrowing, and the level of orders coming in. As a result, robot orders slowed—but they seem to be picking up as we venture through a very interesting 2025 (in both a literal and a Chinese curse sense).
As I separated the North American robot market into segments, I realized that even the lowest expectations were around 7.0% CAGR for the next 5-7 years, not bad for “laggard” status. But the leading robot segments still were 20.0% and above. These numbers are beyond good, especially so if you consider that I looked at North America only, and industrial only. (I averaged at least three market research firm reports over the period of 2025 to at least 2030, some went further into the future, and those that did expected the market to accelerate after 2030.)
I did two such exercises. The first one compared AMRs, AGVs, cobots, “classic” industrial robots (the kind that do the lion’s share of the assembly welding at US auto plants) and what some call “advanced” robotics (think of a robot driven by AI, and with some sensory perception).
Going from slowest-growing to fastest-growing, here is how it played out (remember that the growth numbers are compilations and estimates):
- Classic industrial robots: 10.7% CAGR, 2022-2032
- AGVs: 11.5% CAGR, 2024-2032
- Advanced robotics: 20.0% CAGR, 2025-2034
- (tie) AMRs: 20.0% CAGR, 2025-2032
- Cobots: 22.5% CAGR, 2025-2034
Cobots came onto the market with great fanfare, and there is, it seems, a reason for the product splash. The 22.5% CAGR comes from doing business in a market that has been around for more than 100 years, not a brand-new market with soaring growth. It only puts a number on the latent need for filling jobs, and having come up empty many times, putting a robot or cobot to the task. (Side note: I don’t totally buy the orthodoxy that “We’re not taking away jobs, we’re creating even more jobs, and better ones.” Plain and simple, if fabricators have been eager to hire workers—the jobs are ready, the people aren’t—and they buy robots to do the work, then they have replaced people with robots. If robots can cause growth by being employed, then it’s possible but I think fabricators have lived the last 10 years wishing more people would enter the job market.)
Now, let’s look at robots that incorporate vision guidance and AI. I separated vision into machine vision (allowing it to grab parts based on orientation and location) and vision-guided systems (such as the AMRs that employ LIght Detection And Ranging, or LIDAR, to move about a building). Let’s look at the numbers, which are extreme in their contrast:
- Machine Vision Systems: 7.1% CAGR, 2025-2030
- Vision-Guided Robotics: 7.5% CAGR, 2025-2030
- AI-Embedded Robots (and vision + AI): 27.5% CAGR, 2024-2033
AI is ushering in a renaissance of embedded systems. Not only that, but the market for robots with vision combined with embedded AI functionality will double every two and a half years between now and 2033, assuming the research is fairly accurate.
Just for the exercise of it, think about your business in the same segments as these robot types. Where do you need the most help? If it’s served by classic industrial robots, that segment will experience good growth, but if it is AI-embedded robots (plus vision), you’re in good shape for the upcoming eight years or so, as that will surely be an area of emphasis for the robot makers.